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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win72.1%
Nathan Young win25.8%
Other2.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

0.5%chance
37.5% this week

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%chance
55.5% this week

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Pokrovsk15%
Myrnohrad11%
Kostiantynivka8%
and 1 other

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

076.6%
115.5%
25.9%
and 2 others

Key Factor

Other countries primarily supplying Ukraine

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes