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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
5% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Forecast revealed in 2 days

Will Goma be under the control of the Democratic Republic of the Congo on August 25, 2025?

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

19%chance
26% this week

Key Factor

M23 rebel position supported by Rwanda

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

55%chance

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

22%chance

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,00014%

How many fatalities will there be in the US in relation to protests and violent conflict from June 14 to July 7, 2025?

Key Factor

Heavy police presence likely mitigates violence

4.44
fatalities
94.3 percentage points this week

Key Factor

Heavy police presence likely mitigates violence

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

What's the Endgame of the War in Ukraine?

21
12 comments12
Metaculus Journal Archives

War of Attrition: Updated Endgame Forecasts for the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

16
6 comments6
Metaculus Journal Archives