• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
📈
Market Pulse Challenge
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
🌍🤲
Forecast With GiveWell
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will a digital model of the C. elegans nervous system reproduce the organism’s full behavioral repertoire with at least 90% accuracy?

2072
Year

⚕️Primum Non Nocere: A Physician’s Perspective on AI in Medicine

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back before May 1, 2026?

This question is closed for forecasting. Latest Community prediction is displayed.

40%chance

How much exercise can you do before it starts to take more time than it adds life?

result21.4

Polygenic Selection of Embryos

21
7 comments7
Metaculus Journal Archives

Substance is all you need.

2
1 comment1
AI Progress Essay Contest

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

0.5%chance