Related Questions on Metaculus:
- By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
- If a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s)?
- Given that an artificial intelligence failure-mode catastrophe occurs that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% by 2100, will the global population decline by more than 95% relative to the pre-catastrophe population?
- When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
We're interested in the probability that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) will cause a catastrophe leading to human extinction, conditioned on the time at which it is developed. This question is inspired by a similar question asked on LessWrong.