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Existential risk from AGI vs AGI timelines


Related Questions on Metaculus:

We're interested in the probability that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) will cause a catastrophe leading to human extinction, conditioned on the time at which it is developed. This question is inspired by a similar question asked on LessWrong.

How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?

The questions below resolve Yes if AGI is developed within the period shown — as determined by the question When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? resolving within that period — AND the global population declines by more than 95% due to an artificial intelligence failure mode within a period of 25 years starting from the time at which AGI was developed.

For the purposes of this question, an artificial intelligence failure mode will be considered to be the cause of the 95% reduction in population if the reduction results principally from the deployment of some artificial intelligence system(s).

The questions below will resolve as Ambiguous if AGI is not developed within the period shown as described above.

Note that because this conditions on AGI being developed in the period shown, only one question can resolve as Yes and all others will resolve as Ambiguous, or if AGI is not developed prior to January 1, 2100, all of the questions will resolve as Ambiguous. The dates shown in each period are inclusive.

Population reduction due to an arguably positive development such as willingly uploading their minds to machines or willingly undergoing substantial genetic modification would not be a qualifying population reduction for the purposes of this question.

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