M
Question Group
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
    •

    • Your Question Group is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this Question Group.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This Question Group now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

    If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

    You have been invited to co-author this Question Group.

    It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

    {{qctrl.question.title}}

    {{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} total predictions
    {{ qctrl.question.resolutionString() }}
    {{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} total predictions
    My average score: {{qctrl.question.playerLogScoreOnSubquestions() | logScorePrecision}}
    Created by: Lawrence and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    AGI Horizons

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Related Questions on Metaculus:

    We're interested in the probability that the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) will cause a catastrophe leading to human extinction, conditioned on the time at which it is developed. This question is inspired by a similar question asked on LessWrong.

    Categories:
    Computer Science – AI and Machine Learning
    Existential Risk
    Effective Altruism
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}