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How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?
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| Period | My Prediction | Me | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31 | 50% | |||
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31 | 50% | |||
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31 | 29% | |||
2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31 | 16% | |||
2060-01-01 to 2099-12-31 | 9.3% | |||
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Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2125
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2125
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%
Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
28.7
Authors:
Opened:Oct 8, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2125
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2125
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%
Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
28.7