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Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell before January 15, 2026?

60%chance

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, when will it be granted?

24 Oct 2025
6.4 days this week

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will a US federal court hold any part of the executive branch in contempt for not obeying a Supreme Court ruling, before January 20, 2029?

56%chance

Will Harvard and MIT win their July 2020 lawsuit against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement?

Ambiguous

What will be the outcome of the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft?

The case is settled53.2%
OpenAI & Microsoft Win26.7%
NYT Wins ≥$50 Million10%
and 2 others

If the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in Monsanto Company v. John L. Durnell, will it rule in favor of Monsanto?

80%chance

Will a US court fine, or order a company to pay to claimants, >=$100M because of how they used data to train a large AI model before 2026?

10%chance

Will a federal court rule that the Trump administration violated the Impoundment Control Act in attempting to permanently withhold or cancel congressionally allocated funds by September 27, 2025?

75%chance

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

9%chance