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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win71.9%
Nathan Young win25.8%
Other2.3%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will a 2025 Major Atlantic Hurricane make landfall before September?

Key Factor

Hurricane forecasts suggest above-average season

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Key Factor

Hurricane forecasts suggest above-average season

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

00

What will be the ranking of the Stuff You Should Know podcast on the Spotify charts on July 1, 2025?

≥56result: Yes
1-25result: No
26-45result: No
and 1 other

Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 2nd Quarter of 2025?

resultNo

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

15 Jun 2030

How many barrels of crude oil will the Strategic Petroleum Reserve hold on the following dates?

What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?

Moderate57.9%
High23.2%
Low (or lower)15.8%
and 1 other