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Monitor AI’s Expansion Across Society With the AI Diffusion Index

4

When will the RSA-2048 challenge number be factorized by a quantum computer?

2.6 years this week

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

Will OpenAI surpass 15 million business users before 2030?

Forecast revealed

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

Will the unemployment rate for recent college graduates in the United States rise to 20% or more for three months before 2030?

Forecast revealed

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

Will a company with 1 employee achieve a $1 billion valuation before 2030?

Forecast revealed

Will OpenAI release an open-source model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 2025?

Forecast revealed

Contributed by the AI Diffusion Community community.

What percentage of companies will report that at least 11% of their revenues is due to the use of generative AI in 2029?

Forecast revealed

Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?

Forecast revealed

Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% during the 59th parliament term?

Forecast revealed

What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Key Factor

difficulty level influences bot performance

2.9 % this week

Key Factor

difficulty level influences bot performance