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When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

00

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

23%chance
5% this week

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran66%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?

Ukraine15%
Israel15%
Pakistan10%
and 5 others

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea4%
Saudi Arabia3%
Japan2%
and 6 others

Contributed by the Foresight Institute community.

By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?

15 GW

A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?

resultYes

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance