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Solar Power: Current Challenges, Encouraging Progress

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

When will a fusion reactor reach the following energy gain (Q) milestones?

00

Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea4%
Saudi Arabia3%
Japan2%
and 6 others

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

23%chance
5% this week

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Forecasting Nuclear Risk in 2022

34
7 comments7
Ukraine Conflict

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran66%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?

resultYes

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

5%chance