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Before July 15, 2025, will Geert Wilders' Party for Freedom be the highest polling party in the Netherlands by at least 5 points, according to Politico?

19%chance
4% this week

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
1 comment1
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?

resultNo

Scott Alexander's 2022 Predictions

15
no comments0
2022 Scott Alexander predictions

[New Questions] Autocrat Public Figure Series

12
3 comments3

Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?

Key Factor

Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.

20%chance

Key Factor

Almost half of Russians want Putin to open talks to end the war in Ukraine, indicating potential domestic pressure for policy change.

When will Liz Truss no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

result25 Oct 2022 05:02

Which party will win the most seats in the 2023 Polish parliamentary (Sejm) elections?

Law and Justice (PiS)result: Yes
Civic Platformresult: No
Poland 2050result: No
and 6 others

How many seats will each party win in the 2025 Czech legislative election?

ANO 201184.2
Civic Democratic Party (ODS)39.1
Mayors and Independents (STAN)22.8
and 8 others

Metaculus on the election

no comments0