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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

0.7%chance

Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income be introduced in any EU country before 2041?

72%chance

Will a European Union member state be one of the first 10 countries to select 10% of its population for IQ?

21%chance

Which political group will the President of the European Commission be affiliated with following the 2024 elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
Renewresult: No
and 4 others

Which political group will hold the most seats after the 2024 European Parliamentary Elections?

EPPresult: Yes
S&Dresult: No
IDresult: No
and 4 others
condition

War in Europe by 2153?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2100

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2144
3
no comments0
condition

European Army before 2032?

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2142

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2142
2
no comments0

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

84%chance

Global Pulse Commenting Prize Winners

4
2 comments2
Global Pulse Tournament