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Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

1%chance
condition

War in Europe by 2153?

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2100

Date EU Ceases to Exist?

2144
3
no comments0

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?

84%chance

Will any country trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030?

13%chance