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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Gary Marcus win80.9%
Nathan Young win17%
Other2.1%

Key Factor

The scalability of technology is going to be the biggest key factor which will decide the winner

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

5 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 comment1

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

14 Jun 2029
2 years this week

Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?

resultNo

[Short fuse] Will the Government lose its majority in the 2025 Japanese House of Councillors election?

75%chance
4% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Will China enact an export ban on a rare earth element to the United States before September 1, 2025?

Key Factor

Rise of alternative supply chains reduces dependency

10%chance
5% this week

Key Factor

Rise of alternative supply chains reduces dependency