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Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
8 forecasters
Revealed
in 4 days
no comments
0
Harvard's AI Safety Student Team
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
8 forecasters
Revealed
in 4 days
no comments
0
Harvard's AI Safety Student Team
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Model Autonomy?
5 forecasters
Revealed
in 4 days
no comments
0
Harvard's AI Safety Student Team
Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified
12
24 comments
24
Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?
17%
275 forecasters
18
17 comments
17
Future Perfect
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama
28.34%
AI-Dystopia
19.21%
Singularia
18.37%
2 others
34
167 comments
167
AGI Outcomes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
40%
379 forecasters
37
40 comments
40
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
50%
238 forecasters
21
14 comments
14
Ragnarök Series
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
66.6%
21 forecasters
-2
4 comments
4
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
When will an AI pass the laugh test?
2025-11-02
95 forecasters
10
9 comments
9
AI Demonstrations
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