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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Apr 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

5%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
5 comments5
AI Progress Essay Contest

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

Are We Surprised by AI Milestones?

8
no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec

no comments0
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
OpenAI / GPT-53%

A Case for Nuanced Risk Assessment

10
1 comment1
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