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The Future of Human Spaceflight

10
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

00

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

224k kg

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?

resultNo

Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?

resultNo

To the stars! #1: Will the private investment in laser-sail extra-solar travel be matched by a comparable amount within 5 years?

resultNo

To the stars! #3: Will a first test of a high-power phased array laser system occur by 2018?

resultNo

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

resultNo