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Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

40%chance
10% this week

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

result13 Jun 2025 03:00

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

25%chance

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

35%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

2%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?

23%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

7%chance

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?

resultYes

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%chance