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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?

Forecast revealed in 3 days
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

7 forecasters
if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

25%
25%

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

12%
12%
1 comment1

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

25%chance
25% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

77%chance

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

2%chance

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

16.2%chance
8.8% this week

Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?

resultYes

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,00010%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance