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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
15 comments15
Metaculus Cup

What will be the ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Key Factor

difficulty level influences bot performance

57.2%
10.5 % this week

Key Factor

difficulty level influences bot performance

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic reach or surpass ASL-4?

06 Jun 2030
15.5 months this week

What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?

Moderate57.9%
High23.2%
Low (or lower)15.8%
and 1 other

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2025-26 season through the end of April 2026?

82.7%
7 % this week

When will the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people occur for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2025-2026 season?

00

What will RSV immunization coverage for the 2025-26 season be among the following groups in the US?

Infants < 8 months37.2
Eligible pregnant women36.7
Adults 75+56.2