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When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Mar 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?

64%chance
11% this week

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

27%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

Where is the AGI Roadmap?

5
2 comments2
AI Progress Essay Contest

When will the first fully autonomous surgery or procedure be performed on a human?

Dec 2032

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo

Will robotic/AI automation be essentially ignored in the primary races?

resultYes

Will RoboCup announce that robots have beaten professional human soccer players before 2050?

55%chance

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

27 Feb 2029