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US Democracy Index

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Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?

22.8%chance

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100 forecasters

Will major components of the Affordable Care Act be repealed or curtailed before 2026?

20.5%chance

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100 forecasters

Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?

78.3%chance

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13 forecasters

Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

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100 forecasters

Will the US eliminate the Department of Education through law or presidential reorganization before 2026?

9.5%chance

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100 forecasters

Will Boris Johnson return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026?

5%chance

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99 forecasters

Will Israel establish direct governmental control of the Gaza Strip in 2025?

12%chance

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106 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

15%chance

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105 forecasters

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo serve continuously as leader of Spain's People's Party (PP) through the end of 2025?

87%chance

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106 forecasters

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.