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When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)

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04 Nov 2025 23:08

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04 Nov 2025 16:45

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106 forecasters

Will the US place restrictions on the total compute capacity individuals or companies are allowed to have before 2026?

10%chance

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106 forecasters

Before 2026, will the White House launch a multi-billion dollar moonshot initiative to accelerate artificial general intelligence (AGI), as announced in an official White House press release?

20%chance

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106 forecasters

Will any senior executives of these major public companies be imprisoned for corporate crimes before 2026?

15%chance

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106 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

15%chance

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105 forecasters

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo serve continuously as leader of Spain's People's Party (PP) through the end of 2025?

87%chance

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105 forecasters

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

15%chance

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106 forecasters

Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?

12%chance

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105 forecasters

Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?

25%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.