Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
🌍
USAID Outlook
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?
Resolved :
Jun 2023
Dec 2020
75 forecasters
9
12 comments
12
What will be the cumulative number of private citizens visiting space for the first time?
2035
1.32k
2030
238
2025
56.8
9
10 comments
10
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?
Resolved :
Yes
90%
402 forecasters
132
42 comments
42
The Galaxy has disappeared from view for a third of humanity; will there be a growing movement to bring it back?
Resolved :
No
30%
70 forecasters
5
7 comments
7
Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?
Resolved :
No
46%
234 forecasters
46
11 comments
11
Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?
Closed
50%
174 forecasters
22
4 comments
4
Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?
Resolved :
Yes
61%
84 forecasters
20
11 comments
11
When will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?
Closed
Aug 2023
87 forecasters
3
5 comments
5
Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?
Resolved :
No
33%
261 forecasters
31
7 comments
7
When (if ever) will the Arctic be essentially ice-free?
Closed
Jul 2040
14 forecasters
14
18 comments
18
Load More