Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
💸🌍
Forecast With GiveWell
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Nova Kakhovka
10%
Polohy
7%
Tokmak
6%
11 others
19
18 comments
18
Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
0.4%
540 forecasters
10
16 comments
16
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 20th, 2023?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
22%
87 forecasters
8
25 comments
25
🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?
Resolved :
No
1%
137 forecasters
9
21 comments
21
🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?
Resolved :
No
1%
230 forecasters
15
28 comments
28
📰 Breaking News Tournament 📰
Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?
Resolved :
No
0.5%
337 forecasters
22
59 comments
59
🏆 Q3 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆
condition
Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024?
47 forecasters
if yes
if no
Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024
1%
1%
Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024
1%
1%
4
no comments
0
Conditional Cup