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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
13
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
2
2
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0
comments
5
forecasters
When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?
Current estimate
May 2037
9
comments
40
forecasters
Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?
1
comment
40
forecasters
Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?
result
Yes
4
comments
9
forecasters
Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?
111
comments
127
forecasters
What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?
Latest estimate
83.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
42
comments
143
forecasters
Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?
Together for the Republic
78.6%
Other
8.2%
No Prime Minister
3.9%
6 others
9%
3
comments
45
forecasters
How many Volcanoes will be erupting at the end of 2025?
Current estimate
Revealed
in 5 days
3
comments
13
forecasters
When will the restrictions on Revolut's UK banking license be removed?
Current estimate
Revealed
in 5 days
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