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Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Forecasting Nuclear Risk in 2022
34
7 comments
7
Ukraine Conflict
Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?
Resolved :
No
397 forecasters
12
23 comments
23
Ukraine Conflict
Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?
Resolved :
No
735 forecasters
74
290 comments
290
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?
Resolved :
No
1152 forecasters
54
508 comments
508
Red Lines in Ukraine
Conditional on Russia attacking Ukraine with at least one nuclear weapon before 2024, will Russia use at least one nuclear weapon on Kyiv before 2024?
Resolved :
Annulled
97 forecasters
4
11 comments
11
Red Lines in Ukraine
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
1%
184 forecasters
4
105 comments
105
