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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

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U.S. Democracy Threat Index

12 comments

55 forecasters

Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?

resultYes

0 comments

4 forecasters

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Current estimate

Nov 2035

0 comments

3 forecasters

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?

42 comments

139 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic75.8%

Other10.1%

No Prime Minister3.9%

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4 forecasters

Will U.S. authorities transfer any current or former U.S. citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?

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5 forecasters

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

4 comments

6 forecasters

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

1 comment

7 forecasters

Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?

1 comment

6 forecasters

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Will U.S. authorities transfer any current or former U.S. citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?

Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Will an active duty U.S. senior military leader join an election campaign or accept a civilian executive position in the following years?

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Will U.S. authorities transfer any current or former U.S. citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?

Will an opposing-party authority block or remove a major-party nominee for statewide office from the U.S. general-election ballot in the following years?

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?

Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?