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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

4
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win74%
Nathan Young win22.8%
Other3.2%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?

0.5%chance
34.5% this week

Will legislation pass before 2029 that reduces the federal long-term capital gains tax rate for the highest income bracket?

75%chance
55.5% this week

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

00

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

64%chance
10% today

Will Russia capture the following cities before September 2025?

Forecast revealed in 11 hours