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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

3
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win81%
Nathan Young win15%
Other4%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

2
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

What will be the CDC's In-Season Flu Severity Assessment for 2025-2026?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Platform feature suggestions

112
2958 comments2958
Metaculus Meta

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

How many Patriot missile batteries will the U.S. formally agree to send to Ukraine before September 2025?

Key Factor

Few available Patriot systems for Ukraine

Forecast revealed in 10 hours

Key Factor

Few available Patriot systems for Ukraine

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed in 3 days

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
3% this week