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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win78.9%
Nathan Young win16.9%
Other4.2%

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
65 comments65

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Platform feature suggestions

112
2956 comments2956
Metaculus Meta

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

32%chance
17% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will OpenAI first report that an AI system has achieved the following a risk levels on AI Self-improvement?

Forecast revealed in 4 days

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

22%chance
37% this week

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
5% this week