Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will the following years be the warmest year on record, according to NASA?
2040
52%
2035
53%
2030
55%
3 others
11
32 comments
32
Will 2016 be the warmest year on record?
Resolved :
Yes
90%
402 forecasters
132
42 comments
42
Will the Doomsday Clock advance toward midnight at the end of this year?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
65%
282 forecasters
35
27 comments
27
Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?
Resolved :
No
18%
299 forecasters
30
19 comments
19
Will 2016 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?
Resolved :
No
75%
48 forecasters
5
12 comments
12
Will 2017 be the warmest year on record?
Resolved :
No
46%
234 forecasters
46
11 comments
11
Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?
Resolved :
No
68%
81 forecasters
13
4 comments
4
Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?
Resolved :
No
33%
261 forecasters
31
7 comments
7
Will 2019 be the warmest year on record?
Resolved :
No
22%
232 forecasters
32
30 comments
30
Will 2019 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history?
Resolved :
No
26%
87 forecasters
11
11 comments
11
Load More