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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0 comments
5 forecasters

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Current estimate
May 2037
8 comments
38 forecasters

Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?

1 comment
40 forecasters

Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?

resultYes
42 comments
143 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic78.8%
Other8.1%
No Prime Minister3.8%
4 comments
8 forecasters

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

2 comments
10 forecasters

Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?

111 comments
127 forecasters

What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?

Latest estimate
83.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
8 forecasters

Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?

1 comment
8 forecasters

Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?