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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index
13
0
comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
0
comments
5
forecasters
When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?
Current estimate
May 2037
8
comments
38
forecasters
Will Russia invade another European country before the following years?
1
comment
40
forecasters
Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?
result
Yes
42
comments
143
forecasters
Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?
Together for the Republic
78.8%
Other
8.1%
No Prime Minister
3.8%
6 others
9%
4
comments
8
forecasters
Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?
2
comments
10
forecasters
Will U.S. Congress pass new limits on early voting, absentee voting, or voter registration in the following years?
111
comments
127
forecasters
What will be the score ratio of the highest performing bot compared to the top 5 participants in the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup?
Latest estimate
83.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
1
comment
8
forecasters
Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?
1
comment
8
forecasters
Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?
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