Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🔭
Bridgewater 2025
🤖
AI Benchmarking
📖
ACX 2025
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
What will be the population of Próspera in 2035?
112
80 forecasters
41
25 comments
25
Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018?
Resolved :
No
29%
93 forecasters
3
7 comments
7
How many total confirmed cases of novel coronavirus will be reported in the WHO Region of the Americas by March 27?
Resolved :
81.1k
98.7k
59 forecasters
6
17 comments
17
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
Will Próspera's population in 2021 be larger than 1,000?
Resolved :
No
1%
99 forecasters
19
17 comments
17
Will Próspera at any point before 2035 have at least 10,000 residents?
4.9%
77 forecasters
13
16 comments
16
How many charter cities will exist by 2026?
36.8
20 forecasters
10
9 comments
9
How many UN member states will formally recognize Taiwan at the end of 2025?
11.7
48 forecasters
6
13 comments
13
Americas Monitoring: Will the number of forcibly displaced people double in 2022?
Haiti
No
El Salvador
No
Nicaragua
No
3 others
8
22 comments
22
Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World
9
9 comments
9
Metaculus Journal Archives