• Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Services
  • News
  • Questions
  • Tournaments
  • Questions
  • Questions
Feed Home
👥
Communities
💎
Metaculus Cup
🇮🇷🇮🇱
Iran-Israel Conflict
⚡
Current Events
🏛️
POTUS Predictions
💵
Fiscal Showdown
🏆
Leaderboards
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
⏳
AI 2027
☀️
Bright Line Watch
🇹🇼🇨🇳
The Taiwan Tinderbox
categories
🦠
Health & Pandemics
🌱
Environment & Climate
☢️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
See all categories
  • About
  • API
  • FAQ
  • forecasting resources
  • For Journalists
  • Contact
  • Careers
GuidelinesPrivacy PolicyTerms of Use
ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win71.9%
Nathan Young win25.8%
Other2.3%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

3%chance
27% this week

Will there be an FEC Form 1 filed for Elon Musk's Political Party before 2026?

80%chance

[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?

Key Factor

Increased odds of Trump's media prominence.

resultNo

Key Factor

Increased odds of Trump's media prominence.

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

30%chance
7% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

00