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Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?
91%
1488 forecasters
222
148 comments
148
AGI Outcomes
Has new a planetary-mass object been discovered in the outer solar system?
Resolved :
No
19 forecasters
9
2 comments
2
Will the eventual consensus explanation of star KIC 8462852 variability be an intervening molecular cloud?
38%
38 forecasters
8
10 comments
10
Will the text of the Voynich manuscript be successfully translated before 2051?
36%
90 forecasters
13
7 comments
7
Will the IAU rework its definition of planetary status by Jan 1, 2025?
10%
62 forecasters
7
9 comments
9
Will there turn out to be widespread fossils of algae and lichens on Mars?
3%
155 forecasters
17
18 comments
18
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?
60%
27 forecasters
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Introducing the Metaculus Journal Podcast
12
no comments
0
Introducing Community Manager Evan Harper
21
6 comments
6
Metaculus Meta
Will the finding in Bastian et al. (2012) that meat consumption is related to the denial of minds replicate?
Study 2
58.25%
Study 1
53%
6
7 comments
7
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