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Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025:
1%
779 forecasters
72
349 comments
349
The Taiwan Tinderbox
For how many countries will the CDC issue a Level 3 Travel Health Notice by May 15, due to the novel coronavirus?
Resolved :
Above upper bound
74 forecasters
7
55 comments
55
Li Wenliang Forecasting Tournament
When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?
2028-06-17
33 forecasters
14
19 comments
19
Will any country have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053?
73%
83 forecasters
18
49 comments
49
condition
China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?
10 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
25%
25%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
30%
30%
1
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?
Yes, still owned by foreign adversary
85.34%
No
10.04%
Yes, non-adversary owner
4.62%
8
9 comments
9
Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?
25%
24 forecasters
8
18 comments
18