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After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

302 forecasters

35

Will we know what Dark Matter is before 2050?

198 forecasters

28

Will the US per capita productivity rate of science Nobel Prizes fall below that of Germany by 2025?

11

Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?

Resolved :No31%

6

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

9

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

3

When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?

Resolved :Oct 2023Aug 2027

10

Will transformative AI come with a bang?

13

AI Progress Essay Contest

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Resolved :Yes99%

13

AI Demonstrations

When will a carbon price be paid on 50% or more of the world's carbon emissions?

3