Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ฅ
Communities
๐ญ
Bridgewater 2025
๐ค
AI Benchmarking
๐
ACX 2025
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
Resolved :
Annulled
1.32
44 forecasters
9
52 comments
52
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?
Resolved :
Annulled
2021-07-13
93 forecasters
27
35 comments
35
Will Boeing release a new midsize aircraft, likely called the 797, into commercial service before 2030?
0.1%
13 forecasters
1
4 comments
4
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a โPublic Health Emergency of International Concernโ by the World Health Organization before 2030?
61%
37 forecasters
10
2 comments
2
What will be the total global disease burden (in DALYs) due to lead exposure in the following years?
2122
4.44M
2052
15.5M
2032
21.7M
2 others
5
5 comments
5
Forecasting Our World in Data
By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?
52.2%
102 forecasters
20
14 comments
14
What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?
43.8
47 forecasters
11
15 comments
15
Will the US restore funding for research that creates more dangerous versions of Influenza, MERS and SARS?
Resolved :
No
36%
46 forecasters
12
7 comments
7
Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?
Resolved :
No
17%
215 forecasters
8
8 comments
8
By 2017, will research definitively show Zika virus to be the direct cause of microencephaly in developing humans?
Resolved :
Yes
75%
31 forecasters
6
7 comments
7
Load More