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Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

420 forecasters

36

Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

9

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

6

Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?

Resolved :No29%

2

Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?

Resolved :No15%

101 forecasters

2

Pandemic Series (2018)

Most useful forecastint tools/data sources

26

Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?

Resolved :No20%

-5

IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

175 forecasters

12

Ragnarök Series

How many spaceflight-related fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?

7

Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?

129 forecasters

19