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Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
51%
33
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?
3%
12
9 comments
9
Ragnarök Series
Will a fatality of one or more per year due to accidental infections in "select agent" pathogen research labs be reported in the next year?
Resolved :
No
2
8 comments
8
Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?
Resolved :
No
2
3 comments
3
Pandemic Series (2018)
Most useful forecastint tools/data sources
26
33 comments
33
Metaculus Meta
Will there be a significant increase in worldwide search interest in the term “power outage” reported by Google Trends between 24 August 2018 and 7 September 2018?
Resolved :
No
-5
4 comments
4
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?
Resolved :
No
19
13 comments
13
Ragnarök Series—results so far
31
34 comments
34
Ragnarök Series
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
5.73
20
4 comments
4
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
20%
45
61 comments
61
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