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US Democracy Index

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Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?

1 comment

18 forecasters

Will any U.S. authority refuse to recognize the citizenship of U.S.-born children of non-citizen parents for 90 days in the following years?

4 comments

47 forecasters

How many people will be admitted to the UK under the Agreement on the Prevention of Dangerous Journeys before 2026?

Current estimate

>75.5 People

Key Factors

3 comments

34 forecasters

When will the US President sign a continuing resolution or omnibus spending bill ending a government shutdown?

Current estimate

14 Nov 2025 09:36

45 comments

169 forecasters

When will "Tesla Bots" be available to US consumers?

Current estimate

10 Jun 2029

5 comments

8 forecasters

Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?

Anish Giri99.9%

R Praggnanandhaa99.9%

Hikaru Nakamura99.8%

1 comment

32 forecasters

Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?

98%chance

34% this week

2 comments

8 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

40%chance

45% this week

25 comments

64 forecasters

What will be the highest surface air temperature anomaly during November and December 2025?

Current estimate

0.857 °C

Key Factors

40 comments

195 forecasters

Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?

16%chance

29% this week

Key Factors