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12
comments
34
forecasters
Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?
20%
chance
10%
today
Key Factors
Possible last-minute announcement
40% chance of rain on December 3rd could delay evacuation
Single reservoir emptying might trigger partial evacuation
5
comments
12
forecasters
Which players will qualify and play in the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Hikaru Nakamura
99.9%
Anish Giri
99.9%
R Praggnanandhaa
99.9%
18 others
135
comments
313
forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
48%
chance
Key Factors
Presence of aircraft carrier group in region
Signs of possible US military action.
US in "armed conflict" with narcotrafic and preparing options for strikes
22
comments
45
forecasters
What will be the number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza during the late 2025 ceasefire?
Current estimate
>2193 deaths
2
comments
5
forecasters
How many vehicle deliveries will Tesla report for Q4 2025?
Current estimate
433k vehicles
1
comment
17
forecasters
Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files before January 20, 2029?
33.3%
chance
4
comments
18
forecasters
Will Nancy Pelosi beat the S&P 500 in 2025?
40%
chance
45%
this week
4
comments
5
forecasters
How many nations will be net zero emissions on January 1st 2035?
Current estimate
2.93 Nations
0
comments
19
forecasters
Will the sitting U.S. president’s net worth reach ≥4x its value before they were elected at any point in the following years?
1
comment
10
forecasters
Will an AI created song chart on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
90%
chance
22%
this week
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