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Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?

South Korea4%
Saudi Arabia3%
Japan2%
and 6 others

Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?

Iran66%
Saudi Arabia15%
South Korea10%
and 7 others

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

AMD5%
Google5%
Nvidia3%

Forecast Factors: Drivers of Interstate Wars in the Modern World

10
10 comments10
Metaculus Journal Archives

Explainable AI and Trust Issues

8
no comments0
Metaculus Journal Archives

Who will win the 2022 FIFA World Cup?

Argentinaresult: Yes
Franceresult: No
Brazilresult: No
and 29 others

Will any country have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053?

75%chance

The Global Push to Return to the Moon: Predicting the Lunar Landings and Trends of the 2020s

10
no comments0
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

AI Pathways Report

17
no comments0

Who will win the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup?

Spainresult: Yes
Englandresult: No
United Statesresult: No
and 29 others