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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
4
4
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
2
comments
36
forecasters
When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)
Current estimate
03 Nov 2025
Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)
11
1
1
comment
9
comments
88
forecasters
Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?
58%
chance
6
comments
103
forecasters
Which race will the 2025 Formula One World Drivers' Champion be known after?
Abu Dhabi
67.7%
Qatar
30.2%
Las Vegas
2%
1 other
0%
3
comments
41
forecasters
What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?
Current estimate
61.1%
6
comments
45
forecasters
What will be the lead of Zohran Mamdani in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Current estimate
14.8 pp
12
comments
86
forecasters
What will the first reported earnings per share after September 2025 be for the following companies?
TSLA
result:
0.39
$
AMD (annulled)
Annulled
AAPL
1.77
4 others
3
comments
57
forecasters
Who will develop the first artificial general intelligence?
Alphabet
30.3%
OpenAI
23.8%
Anthropic
18.1%
3 others
28%
99
comments
296
forecasters
Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?
41%
chance
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