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Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?
Resolved :
No
265 forecasters
38
33 comments
33
Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?
Resolved :
No
616 forecasters
38
107 comments
107
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
condition
Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024
Resolved :
No
25 forecasters
if yes
if no
Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?
2%
2%
Resolved :
Annulled
Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?
1%
1%
5
no comments
0
Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?
2035
4%
2030
2%
3
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?
Resolved :
Yes
24 forecasters
4
4 comments
4
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
9.4%
16 forecasters
3
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?
7 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
11%
11%
US-China war before 2035?
7%
7%
2
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
US SLCM 2030
Resolved :
Yes
6 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
10%
10%
US-China war before 2035?
4%
4%
Resolved :
Annulled
1
no comments
0
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?
10 forecasters
if yes
if no
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
25%
25%
Chinese Invasion of Taiwan? (2035)
30%
30%
1
3 comments
3
The Taiwan Tinderbox