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Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?

10

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates?

5

Regulation of AI

How much will China spend on importing diodes and semiconductors in 2022?

Resolved :29.3M37.8M

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies in early 2023 still be in the top 20 in 2050?

7

Will there be an emergency shutdown at a Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) facility before January 1, 2025?

Resolved :Ambiguous1%

2

Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have at least 20% of the market cap that TSMC has in 2028?

10

Chinese AI Chips

Will a Chinese fab achieve volume production at <N nm nodes before 2030?

10

Chinese AI Chips

Will the following major cloud providers buy AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2028?

Amazon Web Services

Microsoft Azure

6

Chinese AI Chips

Will any of the following Western AI chip makers have any of their AI accelerators fabricated in China before 2033?

7

Chinese AI Chips

How many 8"-equivalent wafers will SMIC ship in each quarter of 2024?

Q4 (ends Dec 2024)

Q1 (ends Mar 2024)

Q2 (ends Jun 2024)

6

Chinese AI Chips