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If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Current estimate

0.833%

2 comments

56 forecasters

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

62%chance

36 comments

206 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

4%chance

condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

21 forecasters

if yes

if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.646

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.957

10 10 comments

21 forecasters

Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

24 comments

18 forecasters

What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024?

Herds Affectedresult: 174

Statesresult: 13

16 comments

28 forecasters

Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States?

Milk recall due to H5N1result: No

US officials warn against drinking milkresult: No

Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milkresult: No

99 comments

59 forecasters

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

21 to 100result: Yes

More than 1000.7%

00.1%

18 comments

70 forecasters

How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?

12-20result: Yes

21-300.8%

110.1%

52 comments

44 forecasters

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

community

1.32

result

Annulled

70 comments

118 forecasters

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

resultNo