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2
comments
65
forecasters
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
40%
chance
5%
this week
36
comments
182
forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
2%
chance
condition
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
21
forecasters
if yes
if no
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.609
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.942
10
10
comments
21
21
forecasters
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
2
comments
16
forecasters
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
Current estimate
Jun 2032
13
comments
38
forecasters
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
Current estimate
0.877%