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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

How many total human cases of H5 will CDC report in the United States on October 1, 2024?

12-20result: Yes
21-30result: No
11result: No
and 3 others

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

21 to 100result: Yes
More than 100result: No
0result: No
and 2 others

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

resultNo

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

Annulled

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

6%chance
condition

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

20 forecasters
if yes
if no

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

0.709

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.04
10 comments10
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%chance

If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.15%

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

>Jan 2040
11.3 months this week

Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States?

Milk recall due to H5N1result: No
US officials warn against drinking milkresult: No
Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milkresult: No