Official Competition Rules for the RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge 2025 (the "Tournament")

Last modified: September 30, 2025

In any matter not expressly addressed in these rules, the Standard Metaculus Contest Rules apply.

  1. Description of Tournament.The Tournament, run by Metaculus, Inc. ("Metaculus"), tests participants' ability to make probabilistic forecasts on policy-relevant questions. The RAND Corporation and the RAND Forecasting Initiative ("RFI") are sponsors.

    Tournament page: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/rand/

    Registration page: https://www.metaculus.com/rand/
  2. How to Enter and Participate.
    • Create a free Metaculus account and register for the Tournament via the Registration page, thereby accepting these Rules.
    • Make forecasts on the Tournament questions on Metaculus. You may update forecasts at any time while questions are open.
    • Prize eligibility requires completing the intake form and registering with your school email address. Institutional domains are not required; Metaculus will verify eligibility manually.
    • One account per person. If you have a prior Metaculus account that does not use an institutional email, you may create a new account with your institutional email solely for this Tournament; do not use more than one account.
    • Team entries are not permitted. Forecasts must be your own work.
  3. Eligibility.
    • Open to anyone to participate; prizes limited to undergraduate students (or international equivalent) enrolled as of October 1, 2025.
    • Full-time, part-time, and exchange/visiting students are eligible.
    • No age minimum.
  4. Timing.
    • Official forecasting window: October 1, 2025 – December 31, 2025.
    • Winners announced mid-January 2026.
  5. Prizes.
    • Total prize pool: $10,000.
    • $7,000 Accuracy Prizes based on Metaculus Tournament Scoring Rules (see https://www.metaculus.com/help/scores-faq/).
    • $3,000 Commentary Prizes for thoughtful comments that include key factors. Commentary winners will be selected by RFI judges using criteria such as clarity, substance, and usefulness to decision-makers.
    • Payouts may be in cash or cash-equivalents (e.g., prepaid virtual cards or similar), at Metaculus's discretion.
    • Prize recipients may be required to submit applicable tax forms (e.g., IRS W-9/W-8BEN or equivalents), and to provide payment details to receive funds.
    • Metaculus may publish the final distribution of prizes prior to awards. If needed, Metaculus may update results to correct errors.
  6. Scoring and Resolution.
    • Participants are scored under Metaculus Tournament Scoring Rules (linked above).
    • Scores are time-averaged; updating forecasts when information changes is encouraged.
    • Metaculus determines final question resolutions at its discretion. In rare cases of ambiguity/annulment, affected questions will not be scored for the Tournament.
  7. Conduct and Use of Tools.
    • Bots/automation: Not permitted.
    • Multiple accounts are prohibited except the clarified case in Section 2; do not submit forecasts from more than one account.
    • Metaculus may disqualify participants for violating these Rules or the Metaculus Terms of Use/Privacy Policy.
  8. Data, Privacy, and Consent.
    • For this engagement, RFI will receive de-identified intake responses linked to each participant's public performance score.
    • No individual forecast data will be shared with RFI.
    • During registration, participants will see notice-and-consent language adapted for RAND/RFI reflecting the above.
    • Contact with RAND/RFI: Metaculus will first contact winners and, with their confirmation, coordinate introductions to RAND/RFI. Metaculus will not share contact information directly with RAND/RFI without winner confirmation.
    • Participation is subject to Metaculus's Terms of Use and Privacy Policy (linked on Metaculus).
  9. Optional Proficiency Exercise (External). The Forecasting Research Institute offers an optional proficiency exercise. Taking this exercise will not affect Tournament standings. The link goes to an external site where FRI runs the study; Metaculus will not receive your data: https://forecastingresearch.org/
  10. Right to Cancel or Modify. Metaculus and/or RFI may cancel, suspend, or modify the Tournament if unforeseen technical, legal, or other issues prevent it from running as planned.
  11. Contact. Questions about these Rules: support@metaculus.com