Forecasting for a complex world

Metaculus offers trustworthy forecasting and modeling infrastructure for forecasters, decision makers, and the public.
❓Top Questions🗞️In the News🦾AI Forecasting Benchmark💎Metaculus Cup⏳AI 2027🌍AI Pathways🏛️POTUS Predictions

What will the highest percentage of overall compute capacity held by a single organisation be on January 1, 2028?

23.4%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

65%

What percentage of new vehicle production will be electric in the US in 2027?

25.6%

What percentage of primary energy in the United States will come from solar in 2031?

9%

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

14%

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

30%

Will there be active warfare between the United States and China before 2027?

2.8%

What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?

4.86 %/yr

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

09 May 2027

How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?

2422 M USD

What will be the World GDP in 2028 in trillions of 2010 USD?

112 trillion USD

Will global malaria mortality rates be reduced by 90% when compared with 2015 rates, by 2030?

15%
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Focus Areas

We create forecasts and advance research, decision making, and policy in four main topic areas.

biosecurity

Improving global health by understanding infectious diseases and preparing for future pandemicsSee Forecasts

AI progress

Exploring the future of artificial intelligence technologies and the impacts to societySee Forecasts

nuclear security

Quantifying global risks to keep us safe and secure for a flourishing futureSee Forecasts

climate change

Predicting long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns caused by human activitySee Forecasts

Forecasting Tournaments

Join our tournaments and predict real world events, timelines, and impacts and win prizes for accuracy.

Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

$50,000 Prize Pool
Closes Feb 5, 2026

AI Pathways Tournament

$5,000 Prize Pool
Closes Jul 1, 2031

Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

$5,000 Prize Pool
Closes Jan 3, 2026

Colombia Wage Watch

$1,000 Prize Pool
Closes Dec 31, 2025
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Research & Updates

Our partners use Metaculus forecasts to gain insight into complex challenges and decisions.

Sep 2025

Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

When does political conflict become institutional crisis? Are courts being defied? Is voting access ...

Aug 2025

Introducing Comments of the Week

Forecasts are more informative and useful to your fellow forecasters and to the wider public when th...

Jul 2025

📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

We're pleased to congratulate the top three winners of the Market Pulse Challenge for the 2nd quarte...

Jun 2025

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

By Ben Wilson and John Bash Main Takeaways Top Findings: Pro forecasters significantly outperform...

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Engage with Metaculus

Learn how you can partner with Metaculus to host a forecasting tournament, collaborate on forecasting research, hire our Pro Forecasters for custom projects, or set up a private forecasting space for your organization.

We love working with non-profits in our core focus areas. If you’re a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out!