1 comment
6 forecasters
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
64%chance
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will the Phase 3 LiGeR-HN1 trial of petosemtamab + pembrolizumab in 1L HNSCC meet its primary endpoint before 2028?
73%chance
4 comments
69 forecasters
Who will be the 2026 Time Person of the Year?
Mark Carney
Pope Leo XIV
Zohran Mamdani
Other
8 others
5 comments
61 forecasters
What will be the all-time highest close price of NVDA before January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
243 $
2 comments
7 forecasters
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?
50%chance
3 comments
7 forecasters
Will Generative AI become part of most Americans' daily lives before 2030?
Current estimate
Revealedin 2 days
%chance
1 comment
1 forecaster
When will Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX publicly announce a merger?
2026
2027
2028
Not before 2029
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will Viktor Orban return as prime minister before 2031?
Current estimate
Revealedin 6 days
%chance
682 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
03 Sep 2027
7 comments
87 forecasters
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
Fewer than 39
39
40
41
More than 41
5 comments
44 forecasters
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election?
29%chance
18% this week