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PeterWildeford
Predictions
11591
Comments
1104
Member Since
April 2016
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Track Record
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Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by PeterWildeford
Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?
result
Yes
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
30%
chance
What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections?
R President, R House, R Senate
result:
Yes
R President, D House, R Senate
result:
No
D President, D House, R Senate
result:
No
and 5 others
Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?
result
No
When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?
00
Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?
result
Yes
Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?
result
Yes
What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?
result
2672
What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?
result
806.486k
When will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed?
Jul 2031
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