PeterWildeford

Predictions11835

Comments1120

Member SinceApril 2016

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Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Overview Track Record Medals Comments Questions

Questions by PeterWildeford

107 forecasters

Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?

resultYes

45 forecasters

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

40%chance

107 forecasters

What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections?

R President, R House, R Senateresult: Yes

R President, D House, R Senateresult: No

D President, D House, R Senateresult: No

D President, D House, D Senateresult: No

4 others

99 forecasters

Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?

resultNo

38 forecasters

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

0

44 forecasters

Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?

resultYes

43 forecasters

Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?

resultYes

34 forecasters

What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?

community

2499

result

2672

48 forecasters

What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?

community

814k

result

806.486k

13 forecasters

When will insect feed replace fishmeal for animal feed?

Current estimate

21 May 2031

185 forecasters

When will an AI program be better than humans at making Metaculus forecasts?

community

Aug 2032

result

Annulled

148 forecasters

Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 2022?

resultNo

92 forecasters

[short fuse] Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl LV?

resultYes

102 forecasters

Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?

resultNo

90 forecasters

Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?

resultNo

99 forecasters

What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?

community

5.08

result

5.59

149 forecasters

[short fuse] Will Trump be impeached and convicted by the Senate in 2021?

resultNo

145 forecasters

On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?

resultYes

127 forecasters

Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?

resultYes

350 forecasters

Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?

resultNo

255 forecasters

Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?

resultNo

76 forecasters

What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?

community

0.0619

result

-1.2251

80 forecasters

What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?

community

-0.649

result

-2.08

91 forecasters

Will there be deadly conflict in the South China Sea in 2020?

resultNo