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Pablo
Predictions
9524
Comments
815
Member Since
July 2016
links
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by Pablo
14 comments
57 forecasters
In 2022, will the Future Fund give more than Open Philanthropy to longtermist causes?
Ambiguous
4 comments
31 forecasters
By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?
result
No
8 comments
18 forecasters
By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?
community
4.08
result
4.22
3 comments
20 forecasters
By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?
community
1.5
result
2.94
1 comment
13 forecasters
By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?
community
0.183
result
0.169
12 comments
24 forecasters
By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?
community
0.0803
result
0.0377
3 comments
17 forecasters
By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?
community
204k
result
176.524k
136 comments
175 forecasters
In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]
community
08 Jan 2021 04:31
result
07 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
25 comments
91 forecasters
Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?
result
No
108 comments
304 forecasters
[short fuse] Given that the NYT publishes an article on Scott Alexander, will it include his full name?
Ambiguous
15 comments
107 forecasters
By 1 January 2067, will any medical interventions for healthy adults extend average lifespans by at least 25 years?
53.5%
chance
279 comments
Metaculus Hangout
13 comments
73 forecasters
How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]
community
<1B
result
1.221759132B
14 comments
71 forecasters
If no candidate obtains a majority of delegates in the Democratic primaries, will the candidate with the most pledged delegates win the nomination?
Ambiguous
58 comments
101 forecasters
Will Michael Bloomberg emerge as the leading moderate candidate after Super Tuesday?
result
No
4 comments
59 forecasters
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Consciousness of future AI systems
community
52.7
result
39.19
2 comments
57 forecasters
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Permissibility of genetic engineering
community
55.8
result
64.21
2 comments
57 forecasters
PhilPapers survey mini-series: The many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics
community
32.7
result
19.42
14 comments
65 forecasters
PhilPapers survey mini-series: Impermissibility of eating animals and animal products
community
42.7
result
18.37
23 comments
83 forecasters
Will DNA testing vindicate Jeanne Calment as the oldest recorded person in history?
40%
chance
37 comments
61 forecasters
How many candidates will get at least 15% of votes in the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?
community
3.16
result
3
7 comments
47 forecasters
How many members will Giving What We Can have on 2029-11-15, its 20th anniversary?
Latest estimate
>20k
This question is closed for forecasting.
11 comments
49 forecasters
What percent of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?
Current estimate
3.25%
14 comments
117 forecasters
How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?
Current estimate
24.8 babies
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