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mdickens
Predictions
28
Comments
61
Member Since
November 2017
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Overview
Track Record
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Questions
Questions by mdickens
2 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to long term future charities?
community
13.8
result
Annulled
1 comment
18 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to animal welfare?
community
13.6%
result
Annulled
2 comments
16 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to meta charities?
community
24.6
result
Annulled
5 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
community
17.1%
result
Annulled
1 comment
13 forecasters
How much money will GiveWell move in 2031?
Current estimate
277M $
4 comments
22 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?
community
37
result
Annulled
5 comments
21 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
community
30.6%
result
Annulled
10 comments
57 forecasters
If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?
80%
chance
8 comments
31 forecasters
In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
85%
chance
8 comments
41 forecasters
Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?
32%
chance
39 comments
132 forecasters
What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?
Latest estimate
5.77 %/yr
This question is closed for forecasting.
15 comments
77 forecasters
What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?
Current estimate
5.84 %/yr
4 comments
20 forecasters
What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?
Current estimate
12.7%
19 comments
23 forecasters
When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?
Latest estimate
May 2034
This question is closed for forecasting.
8 comments
36 forecasters
Will the Harvard endowment be larger in 2119 than in 2019?
55.4%
chance
4 comments
24 forecasters
How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031?
Current estimate
428 $
7 comments
26 forecasters
Will a total sum amounting to at least 10% of the money in all US DAFs be expropriated by 2100?
44%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.