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casens
Predictions
8471
Comments
3059
Member Since
February 2018
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by casens
35 comments
45 forecasters
When will the next total solar eclipse occur?
community
08 Apr 2024 17:50
result
Ambiguous
8 comments
13 forecasters
When will robots win a game of association football (soccer) against professional human players?
Current estimate
May 2043
82 comments
235 forecasters
If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump (R)
result:
Yes
Kamala Harris (D)
result:
No
Joe Biden (D)
Annulled
Nikki Haley (R)
Annulled
16 others
0 comments
36 forecasters
Erdoğan wins 2023 Turkish Presidential Election? → Swedish NATO Membership by 2024?
12 comments
77 forecasters
Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?
4 comments
11 forecasters
What will be the level of anthropogenic methane emissions in 2050?
Current estimate
10.4 GtCO2e/year
7 comments
38 forecasters
Next US Economic Recession? (2024) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
0 comments
25 forecasters
Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024 → Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?
2 comments
52 forecasters
Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?
result
No
1 comment
16 forecasters
US Government Shutdown Before 2024? → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
1 comment
22 forecasters
Musk LLM Release before 2024? → Elon Musk World's Richest Person 2025
46 comments
199 forecasters
Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?
result
Yes
4 comments
18 forecasters
How many seats will these parties win in the next New Zealand general election?
National
result:
48
Labour
result:
34
ACT
result:
11
Green
result:
15
Te Pāti Māori
result:
6
8 comments
27 forecasters
What will China's total population be in these years?
7 comments
98 forecasters
Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
15 comments
137 forecasters
On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election?
result
No
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